Last updated: Q3 2025
FRED delinquency data is published with a 4-5 month lag. The ADI reflects the most recent Federal Reserve release.
American Default Index: 2005-Present
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors via FRED. Z-score normalized, 2015-2024 baseline.
What the Leading Indicators Show
The ADI composite reflects bank-reported delinquency and charge-off rates, which lag real-world distress by 3-6 months. Meanwhile, forward-looking indicators tell a different story:
When filing acceleration shows up in bank charge-off data — typically 3-6 months later — the ADI will move. The question is how far.
ADI Components
Mortgage Delinquency (90+ days)
Weight: 25% of ADI
Source: FRED DRSFRMACBS
Credit Card Delinquency
Weight: 25% of ADI
Source: FRED DRCCLACBS
Consumer Loan Delinquency
Weight: 15% of ADI
Source: FRED DROCLACBS
Foreclosure Charge-Off Rate
Weight: 20% of ADI
Source: FRED CORSFRMACBS
Consumer Loan Charge-Off Rate (Bankruptcy Proxy)
Weight: 15% of ADI
Source: FRED CORALACBN
Context Indicators
Additional economic signals that provide context for household financial health.
Initial Claims
Continued Claims
30-Year Mortgage Rate
Personal Savings Rate
Consumer Credit
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
American Worker Index
Coming Soon
The American Worker Index (AWI) tracks a pipeline that no other index measures: from AI capability growth, through workforce displacement, to household financial distress.
The AWI combines five signals: AI capability benchmarks (METR time horizons doubling every 4 months), AI-attributed job cuts (139,905 in 2025 per Challenger), tech sector job openings (down 44% in 5 months per BLS JOLTS), youth unemployment (7.1% for ages 20-24), and enterprise AI adoption (17.3% of businesses, nearly quintupling since 2023 per Census BTOS).
The question the AWI will answer: does AI workforce pressure lead household financial distress? And if so, by how many months? The honest answer today: probably too early to tell. But no one else is measuring it.
Methodology
What the ADI Measures
The American Default Index is a composite of five Federal Reserve data series tracking household financial distress. Each component measures a different dimension of default risk: mortgage payments, credit card obligations, consumer loans, and the bank charge-off rates that signal realized foreclosure and bankruptcy losses. Together, they provide a comprehensive view of how American households are managing their debt obligations.
Component Weights
| Component | Weight | FRED Series |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Delinquency (90+ days) | 25% | DRSFRMACBS |
| Credit Card Delinquency | 25% | DRCCLACBS |
| Foreclosure Charge-Off Rate | 20% | CORSFRMACBS |
| Consumer Loan Charge-Off Rate (Bankruptcy Proxy) | 15% | CORALACBN |
| Consumer Loan Delinquency | 15% | DROCLACBS |
Z-Score Normalization
Each component is standardized to its mean and standard deviation from the 2015-2024 baseline period, making different metrics (mortgage rates in percentages, charge-off rates, loan delinquency) comparable on a single scale. The normalized components are then weighted and scaled to a 0-100 index.
Threshold Zones
| Zone | Range | Color | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthy | < 35 | Green (#22c55e) | Household financial health is strong |
| Normal | 35-50 | Blue (#3b82f6) | Typical baseline conditions |
| Elevated | 50-65 | Yellow (#eab308) | Early stress signals emerging |
| Serious Stress | 65-80 | Orange (#f97316) | Significant household distress |
| Crisis | > 80 | Red (#ef4444) | Severe widespread distress (2008-2010 levels) |
Calibration
Zones are calibrated empirically from the historical distribution of the composite index (2005-present), not from judgment. Crisis zone (> 80) corresponds to values observed only during 2008-2010 peak distress, when the index reached 93.0 in Q4 2009.
Data Lag Disclosure
The ADI reflects Federal Reserve Board data published with a 4-5 month lag. The current reading is based on Q3 2025 data. Leading indicators (foreclosure filings, bankruptcy filings, layoff announcements) provide more current signals and are displayed separately on this dashboard.
Charge-Off Proxy Note
Foreclosure and bankruptcy components use FRED charge-off rates (CORSFRMACBS, CORALACBN) as proxies rather than filing counts. Charge-off rates reflect realized bank losses from foreclosure and bankruptcy proceedings, providing a standardized federal measure that any researcher can reproduce. These rates spike dramatically during crises (20x for foreclosures, 6.68x for bankruptcies during the GFC) and drop to near-zero during healthy periods.
What ADI Does NOT Do
ADI measures financial distress outcomes. It does not predict future distress, recommend policy, or advocate for specific positions. The index is a descriptive tool, not a prescriptive one.
Download the Data
All data underlying the American Default Index is free and open. Download the raw JSON files, verify our methodology, build on it.
ADI Composite
Full ADI history 2003-present
ADI Components (Tier 1)
FRED DRSFRMACBS - Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages
FRED DRCCLACBS - Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans
FRED DROCLACBS - Delinquency Rate on Consumer Loans
FRED CORSFRMACBS - Charge-Off Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages
FRED CORALACBN - Charge-Off Rate on All Loans
Leading Indicators
Monthly foreclosure activity 2020-present
Quarterly bankruptcy filings by chapter
Monthly announced layoffs including AI attribution
Context Indicators (Tier 2)
FRED ICSA - Weekly unemployment insurance initial claims
FRED CCSA - Weekly continued unemployment claims
FRED MORTGAGE30US - Weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate
FRED PSAVERT - Monthly personal savings as % of income
FRED TOTALSL - Monthly total consumer credit outstanding
FRED T10Y2Y - Daily 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury spread
AWI Data (Coming Soon)
AI task time horizons by model
Business AI adoption rates
FRED Data Attribution Required:
All FRED data must be attributed as: "[Source Agency], [Title] [[SERIES_ID]], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/[SERIES_ID], [Date]."
FRED data terms of use prohibit use for AI/ML training.
About
The Gap
In 2013, the CredAbility Consumer Distress Index was discontinued when its parent organization merged — leaving a 13-year void. No composite index has tracked American household financial distress since. FRED still hosts 134 CredAbility series, all marked DISCONTINUED. The American Default Index fills that gap.
The Moment
Foreclosure filings rose 14% in 2025. Credit card delinquency is at its highest level since 2011. Federal data infrastructure faces unprecedented disruption. The need for an independent, transparent measure of household financial health has never been greater.
The Method
American Default is built on public federal data, transparent methodology, no paywall, and no advocacy. Every number on this site can be verified against its primary source. The data is downloadable. The methodology is documented. If a researcher, journalist, or policymaker wants to know how American households are doing, the answer should be one number, one chart, one URL.