Merced County, California
More than double the national median for unemployment (average of monthly rates) — and 18.0× the rate of the healthiest U.S. county (Loving County, TX — 1%).
Main Findings
Merced County, California is more distressed than 87% of U.S. counties on the County Distress Index. The driver: 10% of the labor force was unemployed on average from September 2025 to August 2026 — more than double the national median of 4%. Its highest-scoring domain is Labor and its lowest is Default & Legal.
- 4th of 58 counties in California on the County Distress Index — 87 · very high county distress, more distressed than 87% of U.S. counties.
- 10% of the labor force was unemployed on average from September 2025 to August 2026 (U.S. median 4%). Unemployment (average of monthly rates) at the 99th percentile nationally. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS (monthly rates averaged, September 2025 to August 2026; no figures published for October 2025).
- Rent-to-income ratio at 28% — national median 21%, ranked at the 93rd percentile. Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Fair Market Rents (FY2027); U.S. Census Bureau, SAIPE (2024).
- Credit card delinquency at 8% — national median 5%, ranked at the 79th percentile. Source: Urban Institute Debt in America (2025).
- Poverty rate at 18% — national median 13%, ranked at the 82nd percentile. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, SAIPE (2024).
Neighbors span four CDI score labels. The 72-point drop to Santa Clara County marks where the California distress corridor ends.
Merced County has a very high county distress score. The domain table shows which local pressure carries the composite.
The CDI gives this county a very high county distress label. The five-domain profile shows which local pressures carry the score. Its highest-scoring domain is Labor.
Indicator History
Period-correct raw indicators from the county-history panel. The CDI composite is excluded because it is a current cross-sectional score.
Unemployment rate
Poverty rate
Transfer income share
Subprime credit population
The Indicators Behind Merced County's CDI Score
Every number traces to a public source. Merced County's value shown alongside CA's median and the U.S. median. Full CSV available for download.
| Indicator | Merced | CA median | U.S. median | Pctile | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delinquency — domain score 70 · Rank 838 of 3,144 | |||||
| Auto loan delinquency Share of auto loan accounts 60+ days past due | 6% | 4% | 5% | 57th | Urban Institute Debt in America (2025) |
| Credit card delinquency Share of credit card accounts 60+ days past due | 8% | 5% | 5% | 79th | Urban Institute Debt in America (2025) |
| Subprime credit share Share of residents with a credit score below 660 | 30% | 20% | 23% | 75th | Equifax data retrieved via FRED (2025) |
| Default & Legal — domain score 52 · Rank 1,461 of 3,144 | |||||
| Debt in collections Share of residents with a credit file who have debt in collections | 24% | 18% | 23% | 54th | Urban Institute Debt in America (2025) |
| Bankruptcy filing rate Personal bankruptcy filings per 100,000 residents | 125 | 119 | 126 | 49th | Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, F-5A (2025) |
| Debt Burden (housing basis) — domain score 89 · Rank 178 of 3,144 | |||||
| Rent-to-income ratio Fair Market Rent (2BR) as share of median household income | 28% | 27% | 21% | 93rd | U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Fair Market Rents (FY2027); U.S. Census Bureau, SAIPE (2024) |
| Severe rent burden (50%+) Share of renter households paying 50%+ of income on rent | 24% | 26% | 18% | 85th | U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-year (2024) |
| Labor — domain score 94 · Rank 69 of 3,144 | |||||
| Adults 25-54 not working Share of adults aged 25 to 54 without a job, leaving out residents of prisons and other institutions (service members count as working) | 29% | 23% | 21% | 88th | U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-year (2024) |
| Unemployment (average of monthly rates) Share of labor force unemployed, averaged over the monthly rates published for September 2025 to August 2026 (no figures published for October 2025) | 10% | 6% | 4% | 99th | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS (monthly rates averaged, September 2025 to August 2026; no figures published for October 2025) |
| Safety Net & Buffer — domain score 57 · Rank 1,290 of 3,144 | |||||
| Child poverty rate Share of children under 18 below the federal poverty line | 24% | 16% | 17% | 79th | U.S. Census Bureau, SAIPE (2024) |
| Disability rate Share of residents reporting a disability | 12% | 13% | 16% | 19th | U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-year (2024) |
| Poverty rate Share of population below the federal poverty line | 18% | 13% | 13% | 82nd | U.S. Census Bureau, SAIPE (2024) |
| Uninsured rate Share of residents without health insurance coverage | 8% | 6% | 8% | 52nd | U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-year (2024) |
Five-Domain Breakdown
The CDI is an equal-weight composite of five family-v1 distress domains. Each domain contributes 20% of the county score.
Methodology
The County Distress Index scores household financial distress from 0 to 100 for all 3,144 U.S. counties. A county's score is the share of U.S. counties it is more distressed than. The index is built from five equal-weighted domains: Delinquency, Default & Legal, Debt Burden, Labor, and Safety Net & Buffer. Each domain is the mean of distress-oriented indicator percentiles; the five domains are averaged, and that average is ranked against every other county to give the score.
Data sources include the Urban Institute Debt in America (Equifax consumer credit panel), Equifax data retrieved via FRED (subprime credit share), U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey 5-year, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Local Area Unemployment Statistics), Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts (F-5A bankruptcy filings), and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Fair Market Rents. Data vintages range from 2024 to 2027 depending on source; full indicator-level vintage detail is in the methodology document.
For Press & Research
Everything you need to cite Merced County data.
Draft wire copy 135-word AP-style article — use freely with attribution
MERCED, Calif. — Merced County is more distressed than 87% of U.S. counties, according to the County Distress Index released this month by American Default Research.
Merced scores 87 out of 100, which means it is more distressed than 87% of U.S. counties; its score label is very high county distress. Within California, Merced ranks fourth of 58 counties.
The index, which draws on 14 source indicators from the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Urban Institute and federal court filings, identifies labor as the primary driver in Merced. 10% of the labor force was unemployed on average from September 2025 to August 2026 — more than double the national median of 4%.
American Default Research founder Ross Kilburn is available for interview at press@americandefault.org.
Full methodology and county-by-county data are available at americandefault.org/methodology/cdi.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Merced County's CDI score, and what does it mean?
What drives Merced County's distress score?
How does Merced County compare to its neighbors?
How is the County Distress Index calculated?
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