Analysis
Every number on this site points somewhere. These articles follow where the data leads — the structural patterns, the leading indicators, the gaps between what the headline averages say and what the household data actually shows.
Articles
The ADI Backtest After the Family Rebuild
The retired backtest article used the old z-score engine. This replacement points the same historical question at the family-v1 method.
A family-method ADI backtest note that replaces retired-engine zone vocabulary with family-v1 canonical methodology.
Read the full analysis →Credit Card Defaults After the Cutover
Credit-card stress remains a core measurement surface, but the family-v1 ADI separates delinquency and charge-offs under the family method.
A revised credit-card default analysis note aligned to family-v1 ADI domains and canonical index facts.
Read the full analysis →The Savings Rate Recovered. Accounts Didn't.
The macro savings rate and the household reserve are different measures. The family rebuild keeps that distinction while removing retired ADI zone language.
A revised savings-rate analysis page that separates household reserves from the family-method ADI reading.
Read the full analysis →Your Mortgage Didn't Change. Everything Around It Did.
Foreclosure filings are up 32% year-over-year, but the fixed-rate mortgage isn't the problem. The stress is coming from everything the mortgage was supposed to make predictable, insurance, taxes, escrow, and it's landing hardest on the borrowers the system was built to protect.
Foreclosure filings up 32% YoY as FHA delinquency hits 11.52%. The fixed-rate mortgage held. Everything around it moved.
Read the full analysis →AI Displacement and Household Default
The workforce question belongs to AWI. The household-finance outcome belongs to ADI. The two indexes remain separate.
A revised AI displacement analysis note that keeps AWI zones separate from family-method ADI facts.
Read the full analysis →The FHA Signal Thesis, Reframed
The borrower split still matters. The ADI framing now follows the family method and avoids retired zone and fitted-weight language.
A revised FHA signal thesis that keeps the borrower-split question while routing family-v1 ADI facts through the canonical layer.
Read the full analysis →Household Distress Through the Family Lens
The quarterly update now points to the family-v1 ADI methodology instead of the retired component engine.
A revised quarterly ADI update note aligned to family-v1 domains and canonical facts.
Read the full analysis →Retirement Cannibalization and Household Buffers
Hardship withdrawals remain important household-context data. The family ADI keeps the composite boundary explicit.
A revised retirement-withdrawal analysis note aligned to family-method ADI language.
Read the full analysis →Savings and Defaults Moved on Different Clocks
The useful finding is still the timing gap: household buffers moved before bank-reported delinquency. The family rebuild changes how that evidence is presented and removes the old fitted-weight language.
A family-methodology update to the savings and delinquency lag research, with family-v1 ADI wording bound through canonical facts.
Read the full analysis →State Distress Rankings After the SDI Cutover
State pages now use ranks and fifths. National ADI band labels belong to the national time series, not to places.
A revised state distress analysis note for the SDI family-method cutover, pointing readers to rank-based state surfaces.
Read the full analysis →State of the Buffer After the Cutover
Household buffers remain one equal domain in the national ADI. The old leading-weight component language has been retired.
A revised buffer analysis note aligned to the family-method ADI and canonical facts.
Read the full analysis →The Energy Shock Snapshot, Archived
This page now separates a dated energy-cost analysis from the family-v1 ADI methodology. The index publishes condition readings.
A revised energy shock analysis note aligned to the family-method ADI and no-forecast policy.
Read the full analysis →The Two-Economy Problem After the Cutover
Aggregate credit data and borrower-level stress can point in different directions. The family rebuild changes the index language, not that measurement problem.
A revised two-economy analysis note aligned to the family-method ADI and canonical index facts.
Read the full analysis →57,541 Pairs Tested. Six Survived.
We tested 57,541 indicator pairs through a five-filter statistical pipeline. Six relationships survived. Validated across multiple recessions, confirmed by Granger causality, and replicated out-of-sample. This is the methodology behind the American Distress Index's structural projections.
A five-filter statistical pipeline tested 57,541 pairwise combinations across the American Distress Index's household distress indicator panel. Six validated leading relationships survived FDR correction, first-differencing, multi-crisis validation, Granger causality, and out-of-sample replication.
Read the full analysis →AI Workforce Displacement and Default Data
The AWI and ADI measure different systems. AWI keeps its own zone vocabulary; ADI uses the family-method national bands with the engine reading.
A revised AI displacement analysis note that keeps AWI vocabulary separate from the family-method ADI.
Read the full analysis →The FHA Mortgage Split, Reframed
FHA delinquency remains useful indicator context, but the family-v1 ADI no longer uses retired fitted components or zone language.
A family-methodology revision of the FHA mortgage delinquency analysis, with family-v1 ADI wording bound through canonical facts.
Read the full analysis →Leading Indicator Discovery After the Family Rebuild
The lag research remains a research surface. It no longer supplies fitted ADI weights or retired zone language.
A revised leading-indicator methodology note aligned to the family-v1 ADI.
Read the full analysis →Hardship Withdrawals Reveal a Liquidity Crisis
Americans are pulling money from 401(k) accounts at rising annual rates. This isn't a retirement crisis. It's a liquidity crisis hiding inside retirement data.
Why the rising rate of 401(k) hardship withdrawals signals household financial distress beyond what savings rate data captures.
Read the full analysis →$400B in Debt That Doesn't Exist on Credit Reports
Buy Now, Pay Later debt has exploded to $400+ billion in outstanding balances, but it doesn't appear on traditional credit reports. The real household debt load is higher than any official number suggests.
How Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) has created a parallel debt system invisible to credit bureaus, and what it means for measuring household financial distress.
Read the full analysis →County Features
Long-form narratives on counties whose CDI score tells a story worth reading end-to-end.
Russell County, Alabama
Its Default & Legal domain ranks 4th in the nation. One of the highest bankruptcy filing rates in the country — roughly four times the national median. More than half of working Russell residents commute across the Chattahoochee River to Columbus, Georgia. The bridge carries the wages out. The court keeps the filings.
Russell County, AL sits in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties — 204th of 3,144, 9th in Alabama — and its Default & Legal domain ranks 4th in the nation. 484 bankruptcy filings per 100,000 residents, roughly four times the national median. 45% of residents with a credit file carry debt in collections. Phenix City sits across the Chattahoochee River from Columbus, Georgia, where most of the county's working population commutes.
Read the feature →Washington County, Mississippi
Fifth most distressed county in America. One in five auto loans is sixty days past due — the highest rate in the country. Greenville, the county seat, was the literary capital of the Mississippi Delta. Forty-seven percent of its children now live below the federal poverty line.
Washington County, MS scores 92.0 on the County Distress Index — 5th of 3,144 U.S. counties, 3rd in Mississippi. 20% auto loan delinquency at the 99th percentile nationally, the Delinquency domain ranked 3rd in the nation. 36% poverty rate. The county seat, Greenville, was home to Pulitzer-winning editor Hodding Carter II, Civil War historian Shelby Foote, and novelist Walker Percy. Today nearly half its children live in poverty.
Read the feature →Bibb County, Georgia
Macon and Bibb County merged their governments in 2014 after four failed attempts over eighty years. The promise was efficiency. A decade later the consolidated county sits in the most distressed fifth of the nation, 3rd of 159 in Georgia. The administration unified. The condition it was supposed to address did not.
Bibb County (Macon-Bibb), GA sits in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties — 32nd of 3,144, 3rd in Georgia. Renter cost burden at the 98th percentile and debt in collections at the 99th despite a 2014 city-county merger.
Read the feature →Des Moines County, Iowa
Burlington made backhoes for 87 years. The plant closed. The arithmetic that held the county together stopped working.
Des Moines County, Iowa scores 53.02 on the County Distress Index — the middle fifth, 2nd in Iowa, 1,441st nationally. Burlington made backhoes for 87 years. The factory is closing. See the full breakdown.
Read the feature →Washington, District of Columbia
The seat of federal power lands in the second-most distressed fifth. Its Debt Burden domain runs far higher. FHA borrowers are defaulting at the highest rate of any large-volume county in the country, eleven miles from the agency that insures their mortgages.
DC lands in the second-most distressed fifth of U.S. counties and leads the nation in FHA serious delinquency at 8.34%. Its Debt Burden domain at 76.42 sits 16 points above the composite. See the full five-domain breakdown.
Read the feature →Dougherty County, Georgia
In 1903, W.E.B. Du Bois wrote a single sentence about Dougherty County — a pall of debt, a cascade from merchants to tenants to laborers. In 2026, the County Distress Index scores Dougherty's Delinquency domain at 98.11, with three of its indicators at the 99th percentile. The passage hasn't ended.
Dougherty County, Georgia ranks 14th of 3,144 on the County Distress Index, 2nd in Georgia, with three credit indicators at the 99th percentile.
Read the feature →Dunklin County, Missouri
A county that produces $293 million in cotton and soybeans, exports four professional musicians from a single small town, and hasn’t had a hospital in nearly eight years. CDI 82.26, the most distressed fifth, 91st of 3,144 counties. The gin separates what’s valuable from where it was grown.
Dunklin County, MO scores 82.26 — the most distressed fifth, 91st of 3,144 U.S. counties, 3rd in Missouri. A legacy cotton and soybean economy in the Missouri Bootheel.
Read the feature →Duval County, Texas
George Parr ran Duval County for thirty-three years. They called him El Patron. He's been dead since 1975. The poverty he managed is still here, managed now by a different patron.
Duval County, TX lands in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties — 360th of 3,144, 30th in Texas. The county that changed American history with 87 votes. 45.8% of income from transfers, a Safety Net & Buffer domain ranked 3rd in the nation. See the full five-domain breakdown.
Read the feature →Gadsden County, Florida
In 1896, someone discovered tobacco grown under cloth shade was worth ten times the price. The shade left. The county is still under it.
Gadsden County lands in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties — 15th most distressed in America, 1st in Florida. Only majority-Black county in the state. 41% of residents carry debt in collections.
Read the feature →Glades County, Florida
Sugar, prisoners, clean water. Everything Glades County produces is for somewhere else. There is no hospital.
Glades County, Florida sits in the most distressed fifth on the County Distress Index — more distressed than 90% of U.S. counties, 314th of 3,144. The largest employer is a detention center. There is no hospital. See the full five-domain breakdown.
Read the feature →Harlan County, Kentucky
The most documented poor county in America. Ninety-five years of songs, films, and television. The documentation changed nothing.
Harlan County, KY sits in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties — 57th of 3,144, 7th in Kentucky. The most documented poor county in America. 27.3% disability rate at the 98th percentile, poverty and transfer-income at the 98th and 99th. See the full five-domain breakdown.
Read the feature →King County, Washington
Debt Burden scores 74.52. The composite lands in the second-least distressed fifth. The price filter decides who gets counted.
King County, Washington lands in the second-least distressed fifth of U.S. counties — less distressed than 69% of them, 35th of 39 in Washington. But its Debt Burden domain scores 74.52. See the full five-domain breakdown.
Read the feature →Lenoir County, North Carolina
A Navy aviation facility and low unemployment exist five miles from the most distressed census tract in North Carolina.
Lenoir County lands in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties — 22nd most distressed in North Carolina. A Navy aviation facility and 3.5% unemployment exist five miles from the state’s most distressed census tract.
Read the feature →Lincoln County, Montana
A clinic screened thousands of patients for the disease a mine left in their lungs. The clinic just closed.
Lincoln County, Montana scores 55.57 on the County Distress Index — the middle fifth, 7th in Montana — masking a Labor domain at 95.83 and a Safety Net & Buffer domain at 75.34 against a Delinquency domain near the floor at 10.67. A vermiculite mine left a multi-decade asbestos health legacy; the clinic that tracked cases has closed.
Read the feature →Los Alamos County, New Mexico
The least distressed of 3,144 counties. Twenty miles downhill, the distress climbs back toward the national middle. Prosperity doesn’t descend.
Los Alamos County scores 5.64 on the County Distress Index — the single least distressed of 3,144 U.S. counties, last of 33 in New Mexico. A $5.28 billion federal laboratory in a state ranked last for child wellbeing.
Read the feature →Mitchell County, Georgia
The top peanut county in Georgia produces $370 million in annual farm output as of 2019. Forty-two percent of its residents have debt in collections. The yield leaves. The cost stays.
Mitchell County, GA sits in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties — 106th of 3,144, 11th in Georgia. Top peanut producer with $370M in farm output and 3.6% unemployment, yet its Default & Legal domain ranks 12th in the nation. Full employment, crisis-level debt.
Read the feature →Pemiscot County, Missouri
Twelfth most distressed county in America. First in Missouri. Population peaked at 46,857 in 1940. Fourteen thousand remain. The drainage never stopped.
Pemiscot County lands in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties. Twelfth most distressed in America, first in Missouri. 46% of residents have debt in collections.
Read the feature →Petersburg city, Virginia
The second most distressed county in America sits inside the Richmond metro. Its nearest neighbor scores 47 points lower. The boundary is the mechanism.
Petersburg City scores 92.8 on the County Distress Index — 2nd most distressed county in the U.S., 1st in Virginia. 45% debt in collections, a Default & Legal domain ranked 3rd in the nation. The 47-point gap with neighboring Chesterfield reveals what Virginia's independent city structure concentrates.
Read the feature →Quay County, New Mexico
The name Tucumcari likely derives from a Comanche word meaning ‘to lie in wait.’ The town that took that name is still waiting.
Quay County, New Mexico lands in the second-most distressed fifth of U.S. counties — more distressed than 74% of them, 16th in New Mexico. A town named for waiting, still waiting. See the full five-domain breakdown.
Read the feature →Richmond County, Georgia
Richmond County is not a place the economy forgot. Fort Eisenhower, Augusta University, and the most famous golf course in the world all sit inside it — and it still lands in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties, 4th of 159 in Georgia. The money is here. It is always on the other side of something.
Richmond County, GA sits in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties — 4th of 159 in Georgia. Debt in collections at the 98th percentile, auto loan delinquency at the 98th. Home to Fort Eisenhower and Augusta National, one county line from $95,592 median income.
Read the feature →Tunica County, Mississippi
Tunica County built an economy out of rooms. Gaming floors, hotel towers, buffet halls, back-of-house corridors where 13,000 people used to clock in and out. Four casinos have closed since 2014. A hotel complex with more than a thousand bedrooms has stood empty the whole time. The county sits in the most distressed fifth of the nation, 10th of 3,144, with 9,234 people left to fill what remains.
Tunica County, MS sits in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties — 10th of 3,144, 5th in Mississippi. Four casino closures since 2014 have left the county carrying the debt, with its Delinquency, Debt Burden, and Default & Legal domains all pressed against the ceiling.
Read the feature →Wallowa County, Oregon
Three bronze foundries in a county of 7,674 people. Fifty-six percent national forest. The decisions about it are made in Portland.
Wallowa County, OR sits in the middle fifth of U.S. counties — 1,652nd of 3,144, 29th of 36 in Oregon. Unemployment at the 95th percentile, debt in collections at the 7th. A county that learned not to borrow. Home of the WWII Memorial’s bronze.
Read the feature →Wayne County, Missouri
Wayne County keeps being unmade. The town was drowned for a dam. The courthouse burned three times. A tornado killed six people in 2025. Each time, people rebuilt. The foundation underneath — a 29% disability rate, government transfers, wages that don't close the gap — never does.
Wayne County, MO sits in the most distressed fifth of U.S. counties — 100th of 3,144, 4th in Missouri. Its Safety Net & Buffer domain ranks 58th in the nation, with disability, transfer-income, and income all at the 95th percentile. 29.1% disability rate, 22.4% poverty, every domain distressed at once.
Read the feature →Yakima County, Washington
Yakima County produces $2.3 billion in crops on Bureau of Reclamation water and sustains its workforce on Medicaid, SNAP, and a federally qualified health center network. Both irrigation systems are external. Both are politically vulnerable.
Yakima County scores 68.2 on the County Distress Index. Most distressed in Washington. Its Labor domain leads at 96.33 while the safety net holds debt near zero.
Read the feature →