American Distress Index
U.S. household financial distress, measured against the country’s own record since 2005.
On average, its inputs sit higher than in 45% of their own quarterly histories since 2005.
The composite itself sits higher than 53% of all published quarters since 2005.
The Five Bands
The 0–100 scale splits into five equal bands. The label describes where the present quarter sits in the country’s own distress record. Higher bands mean more of that record is being exceeded.
The ADI averages five domains, each a distinct dimension of household financial distress. Every domain carries equal weight. See the full methodology for the series behind each one.
What Goes Into the Number
As of 2025-Q4Each domain score is the average of its inputs' percentile readings within their own quarterly history since 2005.
The Record Since 2005
The published series runs from 2005-Q1 to 2025-Q4 — 84 quarters. Its peak is 85.3 in 2009-Q3, the depth of the financial crisis. Its low is 15.7 in 2021-Q4, when pandemic-era support programs left household buffers unusually full.
How to Read the ADI
What does the number mean?
Each input is scored against its own quarterly history since 2005, then averaged. A composite of 50 means the inputs, on average, sit higher than in half of their own records. The current reading: on average, its inputs sit higher than in 45% of their own quarterly histories since 2005. Want to see where you stand? Try the Exposure Check.
Is the score itself a percentile?
No. The composite is an average of input percentiles, not a percentile of quarters. The composite’s own rank in the record is published separately: the composite itself sits higher than 53% of all published quarters since 2005.
How often does it update?
The composite ADI updates quarterly, as most underlying federal data sources release on a quarterly schedule. Individual indicators update on their own cadence — some monthly, some quarterly. Check the data status page for current freshness.
Does the ADI predict anything?
No. The ADI measures current conditions against the historical record. It makes no forecasts.
Where does the data come from?
All inputs come from federal and Federal Reserve sources: the Federal Reserve Board, the New York Fed’s consumer credit panel, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Department of Labor, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. No proprietary data, no paywalls. The methodology page documents every series.
What are the individual indicators?
The five domains are built from specific series — delinquency rates, charge-offs, debt service, unemployment claims, and the savings rate. You can explore every indicator, its history, and its current value on the indicators page, or see which signals are moving fastest on the most changed indicators page.
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