American Distress Index — One Pager
American Default
Tracking what happens when the system breaks down.
American Distress Index
44.6
Typical
On average, its inputs sit higher than in 45% of their own quarterly histories since 2005
+1.1 from 2025-Q3
What is the ADI? The American Distress Index is a composite 0-100 score tracking U.S. household financial distress. It averages five equal-weighted domains after each input is converted to a distress-oriented Hazen percentile within its own quarterly history since 2005.
The ADI measures current levels of delinquency, default and legal pressure, debt burden, labor strain, and household buffers.
The composite is a mean of input percentiles, not itself a percentile of quarters. The composite itself sits higher than 53% of all published quarters since 2005.
Five-Domain Breakdown — 2025-Q4
| Domain | Weight | Score | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delinquency | 20% | 52.8 | Mortgage, credit card, consumer loan, and auto loan delinquency |
| Default & Legal | 20% | 36.9 | Credit card charge-offs and foreclosure/charge-off proxy |
| Debt Burden | 20% | 26.8 | Household debt service ratio |
| Labor | 20% | 25.0 | Unemployment rate and initial claims |
| Safety Net & Buffer | 20% | 81.6 | Personal savings rate |
| Composite | 100% | 44.6 |
Domain scores are means of distress-oriented input percentiles. Each domain carries 20% of the composite.
Headline Statistics
2.6%
Personal savings rate
Source: BEA via FRED
11.52%
FHA mortgage delinquency
Source: MBA NDS
2.92%
Credit card delinquency
Source: FRED (DRCCLACBS)
11.3%
Debt service ratio
Source: FRED (TDSP)
229K
Weekly initial claims
Source: DOL via FRED
3.84%
Credit card charge-off rate
Source: FRED (CORCCACBS)
Methodology
Data Sources
88 live indicators from FRED, BLS, NY Fed, MBA, Census, and other public sources
Normalization
Each input is ranked against its own full quarterly history since 2005 using Hazen percentiles
Scoring
Five equal-weighted domains; each domain is the mean of its available input percentiles
Publication Gate
A quarter publishes only when all five domains have at least one present member
Band Labels
National ADI labels publish only beside the engine reading gloss shown with the current score
Update Frequency
Composite quarterly; underlying indicators monthly, weekly, and quarterly depending on source
Data Access
API
americandefault.org/api/adi.jsonCSV Download
americandefault.org/api/downloads/all-indicators-latest.csvEmbeddable Charts
americandefault.org/embed/{slug}/ — 94 indicatorsFull Data Kit
County Story Kits
americandefault.org/press/story-kit/ — 3,144 counties
Citation
APA
Kilburn, R. (2026). American Distress Index [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/
Media Contact
Ross Kilburn, Founder & Lead Analyst
ross@americandefault.org
(307) 264-2992
americandefault.org