American Worker Index
As of May 2026 · Updated Jun 12, 2026
AI workforce displacement signals are at extreme levels. Capability growth, layoffs, and job market contraction indicate acute pressure on workers most exposed to automation.
Score Zones
Five Components
The AWI tracks AI workforce displacement through five weighted components. Each captures a different stage of the AI displacement pipeline — from raw capability growth to downstream labor market effects. See the full analysis for how these connect to household financial distress.
Layoffs explicitly attributed to AI by the announcing company.
The cohort most exposed to entry-level automation: early-career workers competing directly with AI tools.
Information sector (NAICS 51) job openings. Down 53% from 2022 peak of 218K.
Share of U.S. businesses using AI in any business function. Tripled from 3.7% to 10.0% in two years.
Maximum task duration AI can handle autonomously. Doubling every 4.3 months.
AWI History
The AWI starts in early 2019, when METR began publishing capability benchmarks. It stayed in the Normal–Elevated range through 2023, then accelerated sharply in 2024–2025 as AI capability growth, adoption, and layoffs all surged simultaneously.
How AWI Connects to ADI
The AWI measures upstream force — the AI capability and adoption that drives workforce displacement. The American Distress Index measures downstream effect — the household financial distress that results when displaced workers miss mortgage payments, drain savings, and fall behind on debt.
AI systems can handle longer, more complex tasks. METR time horizons grew from 3.5 minutes (the GPT-4 baseline in March 2023) to 1044h 48m.
Businesses integrate AI into production. Census BTOS shows 10.0% of firms using AI, up from 3.7% in two years.
Workers lose jobs or hours. 140K layoffs explicitly attributed to AI in 2025, with tech openings down 53%.
Displaced workers miss payments. This is where AWI meets the ADI — buffer depletion, debt stress, and delinquency follow with a lag.
The workers most exposed to AI — clerical, customer service, data entry, earning $30–55K — overlap heavily with FHA borrowers and subprime cardholders. Read the full AI displacement analysis for the demographic bridge.
Understanding the AWI
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the American Worker Index?
The AWI is a 0–100 composite score that tracks AI workforce displacement across five dimensions: AI-attributed layoffs, tech sector job openings, youth unemployment, business AI adoption, and AI capability growth. It is scored on a Z-anchored scale against a 2023–2024 baseline — the AWI’s own scaling, independent of the ADI, which ranks each input against its own history since 2005.
How does the AWI relate to the ADI?
The AWI tracks upstream force — the AI capability and adoption that drives workforce displacement. The ADI tracks downstream effect — the household financial distress that results. When the AWI is high, the thesis is that ADI indicators (especially labor market and buffer depletion) will follow with a lag.
Why is the AWI at Crisis level?
AI capability (METR time horizons) has grown from single-digit hours in 2023 to 1045 hours as of April 2026, doubling every 4.2 months. AI-attributed layoffs reached 140,000 in 2025. Youth unemployment is elevated. These signals together push the composite into Crisis territory.
Does a high AWI mean mass unemployment?
Not directly. The AWI measures displacement pressure — the combination of capability growth, adoption, and early labor market signals. Whether this translates to broad unemployment depends on retraining speed, new job creation, and policy response. The AWI tracks what is happening, not what will happen.
Where does the data come from?
All five components use public federal data or publicly accessible research: BLS (unemployment, JOLTS), Challenger Gray & Christmas (layoff announcements), Census Bureau BTOS (adoption survey), and METR (AI capability benchmarks). No proprietary data, no paywalls.
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