Most Changed Indicators
Which distress signals are moving fastest? Ranked by year-over-year change magnitude across 86 indicators.
Last built: 2025-12-31
Of the 86 indicators tracked by American Default Research, 56 are worsening and 30 are improving year-over-year. The American Distress Index currently reads 44.6, in its Typical band. On average, its inputs sit higher than in 45% of their own quarterly histories since 2005.
Fastest Worsening
Indicators where the year-over-year change is moving in the direction of greater household distress.
| # | Indicator | Current | YoY Change | YoY % | Component |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Horizon AI Autonomous Task Horizon (METR) | 1044.80 | +1037.80 | +14825.7% | AI Workforce |
| 2 | Student Loan Delinquency Rate (90+ days) | 9.57% | +9.04 pp | +1705.2% | Debt Stress |
| 3 | Foreclosure Filings Foreclosure Filings YoY Change | 32.00% | +34.00 pp | +1700.0% | Legal Filings |
| 4 | Energy CPI (All Items) | 22.97% | +26.54 pp | +743.5% | Upstream Pressure |
| 5 | The Adoption Curve Business AI Adoption Rate | 10.00% | +6.30 pp | +170.3% | AI Workforce |
| 6 | Wage Growth vs CPI Spread | -0.58 pts | -2.60 pp | -128.7% | Upstream Pressure |
| 7 | The Import Tax Household Tariff Burden (Estimated Tariff Cost as % of Disposable Income) | 1.72% | +0.93 pp | +117.7% | Upstream Pressure |
| 8 | AI Job Posting Share (% of Total) | 5.68% | +2.82 pp | +98.6% | AI Workforce |
| 9 | The AI Cut AI-Attributed Layoff Announcements | 39K | +17.10K | +79.5% | AI Workforce |
| 10 | CPI Inflation Rate (All Items) | 4.17% | +1.84 pp | +79.2% | Upstream Pressure |
| 11 | The Grocery Gap Grocery Affordability Gap (AHE YoY minus Food-at-Home CPI YoY) | 0.37 pts | -0.79 pp | -68.3% | Upstream Pressure |
| 12 | CFPB Consumer Complaint Volume | 662,917 | +247732.00 | +59.7% | Legal Filings |
| 13 | Serious Delinquency Rate (90+ days, All Loan Types) | 3.12% | +1.08 pp | +53.0% | Debt Stress |
| 14 | The Buffer Personal Saving Rate | 2.60% | -2.90 pp | -52.7% | Buffer Depletion |
| 15 | The Search Signal Google Search Interest: Financial Distress | 64.00 | +22.00 | +52.4% | Upstream Pressure |
Fastest Improving
Indicators where the year-over-year change is moving toward less household distress.
| # | Indicator | Current | YoY Change | YoY % | Component |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Healthcare Inflation Premium (Medical CPI minus Overall CPI) | -1.57 pts | -1.97 pp | -497.9% | Upstream Pressure |
| 2 | Prescription Drug CPI | -2.02% | -4.30 pp | -188.4% | Upstream Pressure |
| 3 | Pink Slips Challenger Job Cut Announcements | 97K | -178.20K | -64.8% | Labor Market |
| 4 | The Coverage Tax Auto Insurance Inflation Premium (Auto CPI minus Overall CPI) | 1.96 pts | -1.27 pp | -39.3% | Upstream Pressure |
| 5 | The Pipeline Foreclosure Starts vs Completions Ratio | 4.75 | -1.54 | -24.5% | Legal Filings |
| 6 | WARN Act Layoff Notices (Monthly) | 39,118 | -8283.00 | -17.5% | Labor Market |
| 7 | Shelter CPI | 3.35% | -0.64 pp | -15.9% | Upstream Pressure |
| 8 | Large vs Small Bank Credit Card Delinquency Spread | 3.51 pts | -0.61 pp | -14.8% | Debt Stress |
| 9 | Chapter 7 Bankruptcy Filings (YoY % Change) | 15.30% | -2.60 pp | -14.5% | Legal Filings |
| 10 | Charge-Off Rate on Credit Card Loans | 3.84% | -0.62 pp | -13.9% | Debt Stress |
| 11 | Mortgage Origination Volume | $524.4B | +$59.07B | +12.7% | Debt Stress |
| 12 | Charge-Off Rate on All Loans | 0.57% | -0.07 pp | -10.9% | Legal Filings |
| 13 | The Other Banks Credit Card Delinquency Rate — Banks Outside Top 100 | 6.43% | -0.75 pp | -10.4% | Debt Stress |
| 14 | SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment | 37,870,817 | -4309706.00 | -10.2% | Upstream Pressure |
| 15 | Bankruptcy Filings Bankruptcy Filings YoY Change | 11.90% | -1.20 pp | -9.2% | Legal Filings |
What This Tells Us
The balance between worsening and improving indicators provides a quick pulse check on household financial conditions. When the majority of indicators are worsening, it signals broadening distress — not just isolated pockets.
The American Distress Index distills the national picture into a single composite score. It currently reads 44.6, in its Typical band. On average, its inputs sit higher than in 45% of their own quarterly histories since 2005. View the full ADI breakdown →
How This Page Works
This page is auto-generated at build time. It reads every indicator JSON file, computes
year-over-year changes (or period-over-period for indicators with less than a year of history),
and ranks them by the absolute magnitude of percentage change. "Worsening" and "improving"
are determined by each indicator's direction field — for most distress indicators,
an increase is worsening.
Indicators with annual frequency compare to the prior year. Quarterly indicators compare to the same quarter last year. Monthly indicators compare to the same month last year.
Frequently Asked Questions
How are the 'most changed' indicators calculated?
Each indicator is ranked by the absolute magnitude of its year-over-year percentage change. Worsening vs. improving is determined by the indicator's direction — for 'higher is worse' indicators like delinquency rates, an increase is worsening. For 'lower is worse' indicators like the savings rate, a decrease is worsening.
How often is this page updated?
This page regenerates automatically every time the site builds, which happens whenever new data arrives via the automated FRED, BLS, or press release parsing pipelines. Most indicators update monthly or quarterly.
What does the American Distress Index currently show?
The ADI currently reads 44.6, in its Typical band. On average, its inputs sit higher than in 45% of their own quarterly histories since 2005. The index is built from five domains: Delinquency, Default & Legal, Debt Burden, Labor, and Safety Net & Buffer.
Why do some indicators show large percentage changes?
Indicators measured in small absolute numbers (like percentage-point spreads or ratios near zero) can show large percentage changes from small absolute movements. The absolute change column provides context alongside the percentage change.
Can I track a specific indicator over time?
Yes. Click any indicator name to see its full detail page with historical chart, data table, year-over-year changes, editorial context, and related signals.