AI Workforce
⚡ Leading Signal

The Wedge

Productivity-pay wedge

Currently elevated — historically leads Gas Affordability Ratio by 0 quarter. Gas Affordability Ratio · View projections

What is the current Wedge?

PRODUCTIVITY-PAY WEDGE
108.5
on the wedge index, tracking how far output per hour has run ahead of pay

Productivity-Pay Wedge: 108.5 as of 2026-Q1, and holding steady. Source: Computed (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics OPHNFB vs COMPRNFB data retrieved via FRED).

The Wedge at 108

Tracking stable relative to recent baseline.

Source: Computed (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics OPHNFB vs COMPRNFB data retrieved via FRED) · Source data ↗
Related signals confirming this trend
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The Tech Drought
90K ↓ Improving
Tech companies stopped hiring and the data shows it
AI Workforce

How has The Wedge changed over time?

CSV Chart
Output per hour keeps rising; the paycheck stopped following
Ratio of output per hour to real hourly compensation, indexed to 2017
The Wedge
Data: Computed (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics OPHNFB vs COMPRNFB data retrieved via FRED) Updated Jul 2026

Most affected counties

Counties with the highest labor scores in the County Distress Index.

1 Imperial County CA 100 2 Yuma County AZ 99.9 3 Dawson County NE 99.9 4 Luna County NM 99.9 5 Colusa County CA 99.8 6 Tulare County CA 99.6 7 Merced County CA 99.4 8 Starr County TX 99.4 9 Maverick County TX 99.3 10 Kern County CA 99.2
Explore all 3,144 counties →
Historical data
Quarterly · Computed (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics OPHNFB vs COMPRNFB data retrieved via FRED)
Period Value YoY Change
Q1 2026 108.477 +2.336
Q4 2025 108.023 +0.977
Q3 2025 107.921 +0.957
Q2 2025 107.361 +0.451
Q1 2025 106.141 -0.329
Q4 2024 107.045 +0.103
Q3 2024 106.964 +0.458
Q2 2024 106.91 +1.002
Q1 2024 106.47 +0.693
Q4 2023 106.943 +1.535
Q3 2023 106.506 +2.648
Q2 2023 105.907 +1.632

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Productivity-Pay Wedge?

Productivity-pay wedge

Why does Productivity-Pay Wedge matter for financial distress?

Productivity-Pay Wedge is one of the indicators tracked by the American Distress Index (ADI), which measures five dimensions of U.S. household financial distress: Delinquency, Default & Legal, Debt Burden, Labor, and Safety Net & Buffer. Changes in this indicator contribute to the overall distress picture.

Where does the Productivity-Pay Wedge data come from?

This data comes from Computed (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics OPHNFB vs COMPRNFB data retrieved via FRED). More information: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB. The American Distress Index updates this indicator quarterly.

Ross Kilburn
Written by

Ross Kilburn, Founder

American Default Research · Seattle, Washington
𝕏 @

Two decades working directly with financially distressed American households — from property preservation in 2003, to negotiating over 1,000 short sales during the Great Recession, to foreclosure defense marketing today. Author, The Ark Law Group Complete Guide to Short Sales (Auroch Press, 2013). Twice named to Puget Sound Business Journal Fast 50 for Ark Law Group. B.A., University of California, Berkeley, 1992. Founded American Default Research in 2026 to fill a gap in public data that had been empty since 2013.

Read more
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Why does The Wedge matter?

The Wedge is one of 98 live indicators tracked by American Default Research. The methodology page explains sources, update cadence, and how the index uses its published inputs.
View methodology →
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