The Repo Line

Serious delinquency on auto loans — balances 90 or more days past due — reached 5.2% in Q4 2025, according to the New York Fed. That's the highest rate since Q4 2010, during the long tail of the Great Recession, and up from 3.98% at the end of 2021. Unlike mortgages, where forbearance programs provided a buffer, auto loans received no comparable relief, making them an early and unfiltered signal of household financial stress.

Auto loans occupy a unique position in the household balance sheet. Borrowers typically prioritize car payments above credit cards and even some utility bills, because losing a vehicle means losing the ability to get to work. When auto loan delinquency rises to these levels, it signals that borrowers have already exhausted other options. Falling Behind confirms the broader picture: total delinquency across all consumer debt has risen to 4.8%.

The surge in auto loan distress traces directly to the pandemic-era vehicle market. Buyers who purchased vehicles in 2021–2022 paid inflated prices and, as rates rose, locked in higher monthly payments. The Card Tax illustrates the broader rate environment: credit card APRs at a record 20.97%. For households already managing record credit card debt, an underwater auto loan becomes the breaking point. Pink Slips adds another dimension: 108,400 layoffs were announced in January 2026 alone, the worst January in 17 years.