The Divergence
-9.9 pts — essentially unchanged; holiday spending vs. January reality
What is the current The Divergence?
The spending gap between top-quartile and bottom-quartile households measures how consumer spending diverges across income levels. A widening gap indicates that lower-income households are cutting back on spending while higher-income households continue spending — a K-shaped pattern that standard consumer spending averages obscure. Source: Opportunity Insights / Bank of America Institute.
Low-income spending is running nearly 10 points below high-income growth
Opportunity Insights data. The gap between top and bottom quartile spending reflects a two-track consumer economy — one that is fine and one that is cutting back.
Explore Further
How has The Divergence changed over time?
Most affected counties
Counties with the highest housing cost burden scores in the County Distress Index.
Explore all 3,144 counties →| Period | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2024 | -9.9 pts | +0.1 pts |
| May 2024 | -9.2 pts | +0.6 pts |
| Apr 2024 | -9.2 pts | +0.2 pts |
| Mar 2024 | -8.7 pts | −0.1 pts |
| Feb 2024 | -9.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| Jan 2024 | -9.6 pts | +0.4 pts |
| Dec 2023 | -9 pts | +1.0 pts |
| Nov 2023 | -9.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| Oct 2023 | -9.7 pts | +0.5 pts |
| Sep 2023 | -9.4 pts | +0.7 pts |
| Aug 2023 | -9.4 pts | −0.3 pts |
| Jul 2023 | -9.6 pts | −0.2 pts |
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the spending divergence measure?
It compares consumer spending growth between top-quartile and bottom-quartile households. A widening gap shows that aggregate spending data masks a K-shaped reality where lower-income households are pulling back while upper-income households maintain or increase spending.
Why does spending divergence matter?
Aggregate consumer spending is approximately 70% of U.S. GDP. If spending growth is driven entirely by the top quartile while the bottom quartile contracts, the economy can appear healthy on average while a large share of households experiences worsening conditions.
Where does spending divergence data come from?
Opportunity Insights and Bank of America Institute both track spending by income quartile using different methodologies — credit card transaction data and internal depositor data respectively. The convergence of both sources strengthens the signal.
Quick poll
Is this affecting you or your household?
Discussion
Get the numbers when they move.
New data drops, indicator updates, and ADI score changes — delivered when it matters. No spam.
or Create an Account for full access
Loading comments…