FHA Delinquency Is 6x the Conventional Rate
The FHA delinquency rate is 6.5x higher than the conventional rate — a gap that aggregate figures routinely conceal. Data from the MBA National Delinquency Survey, the Federal Reserve, and the NY Fed, updated quarterly.
Last updated: 2026-04-16
What Is the Current Mortgage Delinquency Rate?
The answer depends on who you're counting. The FHA delinquency rate — covering government-backed loans to lower-income and first-time buyers — stands at 11.5% as of 2025-Q4, the highest since 2021 and 6.5x the conventional rate of 1.8%. Conventional delinquency has been nearly flat throughout 2024–2025, hovering near historic lows.
Here's what that gap reveals. There is no single "mortgage delinquency rate" in any meaningful sense. There are two completely separate markets producing two completely separate outcomes, and the national average blends them into a number that describes neither. The 9.74 percentage point spread between FHA and conventional borrowers is wider than it was in 2019, wider than it was before the pandemic, and widening still. The American Distress Index tracks this divergence as a core Debt Stress signal, currently reading 64.4 (Elevated).
Key Statistics at a Glance
The American Distress Index currently reads 64.4 (Elevated). FHA delinquency feeds the ADI's Debt Stress component. It is one of the index's two most closely watched leading indicators: FHA borrowers, by virtue of thinner financial buffers, have historically defaulted 6–9 quarters ahead of conventional borrowers when economic conditions deteriorate.
Why Are FHA Borrowers Defaulting at 4x the Rate?
The thing I keep coming back to with mortgage data is that the most important number isn't a rate. It's a ratio. As of 2025-Q4, FHA-insured mortgages carry a delinquency rate of 11.5% compared to 1.8% for conventional loans. That 6.5x multiplier doesn't just describe two different performance levels. It describes two different housing markets operating under one roof.
FHA loans serve a specific and consequential population: first-time buyers, lower-income households, and borrowers with credit scores below 620. They put down as little as 3.5%, carry higher debt-to-income ratios, and have virtually no margin for error when income disruptions, medical expenses, or cost-of-living increases hit. For the full thesis on what the FHA divergence means, see The FHA Signal.
| Metric | FHA Loans | Conventional Loans |
|---|---|---|
| Current delinquency rate | 11.5% | 1.8% |
| Historical peak | 17.4% (Dec 2020) | 11.5% (2010) |
| Typical borrower profile | First-time buyers, lower credit scores, small down payments | Repeat buyers, higher credit scores, larger down payments |
| Minimum down payment | 3.5% | 3–20% |
| Loan insurer | Federal Housing Administration (FHA) | Private mortgage insurance or none |
| Distress signal role | Leading indicator — defaults first | Lagging indicator — more resilient borrowers |
FHA Delinquency Rate Over Time
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association National Delinquency Survey.
Full data and trend: The FHA Signal indicator page
Conventional Mortgage Delinquency (90+ Days)
The delinquency rate on single-family residential mortgages 90 days or more past due stood at 1.8% in 2025-Q4, according to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors via FRED. Remarkably stable since 2022. Hovering between 1.7% and 1.8%.
This is the number that makes the mortgage market look fine. It peaked at 11.5% during the 2008–2010 crisis — more than 6x today's reading. But the stability is mechanical, not economic. Post-GFC underwriting standards dramatically tightened. Borrowers who received conventional mortgages since 2010 are better-qualified on paper, locked in at lower rates, sitting on substantial equity. The low delinquency rate is real. It just shouldn't be read as evidence that the broader housing market is healthy. It reflects who got approved, not what conditions look like for the people who didn't. The divergence between FHA and conventional delinquency is central to the original FHA Signal analysis.
Conventional Mortgage Delinquency Rate (90+ Days, All Loans)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED (DRSFRMACBS).
Full data and trend: Mortgage Delinquency indicator page
Serious Delinquency Rate (90+ Days, All Household Debt)
The NY Fed's measure of all household debt balances 90+ days delinquent rose to 3.1% in 2025-Q4. This broader measure captures mortgage, credit card, auto loan, and student loan balances together.
I think the part that's underappreciated is the sequencing. Mortgage delinquency (especially conventional) is historically low. Consumer debt delinquency is climbing steadily. These two facts are presented as if they describe a stable system. They describe a system in the middle of a sequence. Consumer debt goes first. Credit cards, then auto loans, then mortgages. Buffer Depletion has historically led Debt Stress by an average of 9 quarters. The conventional mortgage rate at 1.8% is the last domino still standing, not proof that the others don't matter.
Serious Delinquency Rate (90+ Days, All Household Debt)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Household Debt and Credit Report.
Full data and trend: Serious Delinquency Rate indicator page
What Does the FHA-Conventional Gap Mean for Homeowners?
Before the 2008 crisis, FHA delinquency rates began rising 6–9 quarters before conventional mortgage delinquencies followed. Lower-income, thinner-buffered borrowers absorb economic shocks first. Conventional borrowers, with larger down payments and stronger balance sheets, default later. When they do, the systemic consequences are far larger.
Which makes this worth watching: today's 6.5x gap is historically elevated. In 2019, FHA delinquency ran roughly 5–6x the conventional rate. The widening reflects three things compounding simultaneously. Elevated home prices that stretched FHA borrowers to their limits. Persistent inflation that eroded real incomes. And the higher debt service burden inherent in low-down-payment lending at 6-7% interest. Each one is manageable in isolation. Together, they're the math that stops working. If you are behind on mortgage payments, early action significantly improves outcomes.
The Leading Indicator Thesis
Buffer Depletion indicators (savings rate, debt service ratio, 401(k) hardship withdrawals) have historically led Debt Stress indicators (mortgage and consumer delinquency) by 2+ years. When households exhaust their financial cushions, payment failures follow — first in unsecured debt (credit cards), then in secured debt (auto loans), and eventually in mortgages.
FHA delinquency is elevated because FHA borrowers, by definition, had smaller cushions to begin with. The question the ADI tracks: will conventional borrowers follow the same trajectory as their buffers erode?
Read the methodology: "What If We'd Been Watching Savings Instead of Delinquencies?" →Mortgage Servicer Complaint Data
Delinquency outcomes depend partly on how servicers handle distressed borrowers. We track CFPB complaint records for 76 mortgage servicers. The largest by complaint volume — Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Ocwen / Onity Group, and JPMorgan Chase — collectively account for over 156,000 mortgage complaints. Nonbank servicers like Shellpoint / NewRez, Select Portfolio Servicing, and LoanCare now handle a growing share of FHA and subprime portfolios.
Browse all 76 servicer profiles with complaint grades, contact information, and demand letter templates. Use the complaint search tool to filter by servicer, state, or issue type.
Data Sources and Methodology
MBA National Delinquency Survey
Quarterly survey of mortgage servicers covering approximately 27 million loans. The FHA delinquency rate counts loans with any missed payment (30+ days past due) as a share of all FHA-insured loans serviced. Published by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Federal Reserve Board / FRED
The conventional mortgage delinquency rate (DRSFRMACBS) measures single-family residential mortgages 90 days or more past due as a percentage of all such mortgages outstanding. Quarterly frequency, sourced from bank call reports.
NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report
The serious delinquency rate measures all consumer debt balances (mortgage, credit card, auto, student) that are 90+ days past due as a share of all balances. Based on a nationally representative 5% sample of Equifax credit reports.