Savings and Defaults Moved on Different Clocks

The earlier version of this essay mixed a retired z-score ADI engine with changing ADI primitives. This revision keeps the research question and removes the old component-weight framing. Under the family-v1 method, the national ADI is the mean of five equal-weighted domains, and Safety Net & Buffer is one of those domains.

The core evidence is a historical lag relationship between household buffers and later delinquency data. It describes the order of movement across prior stress cycles without declaring the next reading.

The ADI reference page publishes the maintained national reading with its required band gloss through canonical facts. The composite is a mean of input percentiles, and quarter-rank context comes from the separate rank-in-history field.

For the full family methodology, use the ADI methodology page. For the underlying indicator, use the personal savings rate page and the debt service ratio page.