NFCI Non-Financial Leverage Subindex

The Chicago Fed's nonfinancial leverage subindex read -0.46 in the week ending Sep 25, 2026, below the long-run average of zero. A year earlier it was -0.58, a gap within the size of one week's revision. In the Chicago Fed's current estimates, it is the highest reading since the week ending Mar 29, 2019.

The subindex is built from two ratios. One is nonfinancial business debt compared with GDP. The other is household mortgage and consumer debt compared with spending on durable goods plus home building. It tracks how fast those ratios grow each quarter, scaled so that zero is the average since 1971 and each unit is one standard deviation. A reading above zero means growth in the ratios is above its average; below zero, under it. A reading below zero does not mean debt is being paid down, and a ratio can grow because GDP or spending grows slowly, not only because debt grows.

Both inputs are quarterly, so the weekly number is a model update, not a new measurement of borrowing. The Chicago Fed re-estimates the whole history every week, and past values can shift by more than a tenth of a point. Values before its November 2012 release are estimated history, not readings published at the time. Chicago Fed researchers reported in 2012 that above-average values of this subindex came before most past financial crises and recessions; that is their finding about history, not a forecast.

This is not the NFCI itself, which averages 105 indicators, and not its separate "leverage" subindex, which moves the opposite way. It says nothing about loan terms or interest rates, and it does not measure debt payments against income; the household debt service ratio does that for households.